Cut Losers, Let Winners Run

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Warren Buffett once quipped that there are two rules in investing. First, don’t lose money. Second, don’t forget the first rule. There is both truth and untruth to this statement, and it’s helpful to investors to know which is which.

First, the untruth. Losses are an ordinary part of ALL successful investing. Even the most successful proprietary traders have losing days 10-20% of the time. On the other end of the spectrum, successful trend-following strategies may lose 70% of all trades. Yes, that’s right—only 30% winning trades. More about this in a moment.

And let’s also acknowledge that Buffett took 50% drawdowns in the balance of his accounts on three separate occasions throughout his career as an investor. Clearly, there is more to his statement than meets the eye.

Here is the truth. If losses are not minimized and managed as part of smart trading or investing plan, they will become a major problem and create losses over the long term. There are trading strategies where 90% of all trades are winners, yet still lose money over time. Why? Because the sum total value of the losses is greater than the sum total value of the gains. This is how trend-following strategies can succeed with only 30% winning trades—the sum total of the winning trades is so large that it exceeds the sum total of the losing trades.

In the end, only three things matter: how often you win, how much you win when you win, and how much you lose when you lose.

Stillpoint’s trading and investment systems tend to win around half the time, but we make money over time because the winners win 2-4x what the losers lose.

This is essence of another, more significant trading aphorism from David Ricardo—cut your losers short and let your winners run. Do you have have answers to these questions for your investment plan?

 

Ready to see what we can do for you? Contact us today.

 

Important Disclosures:  While Stillpoint Capital’s investment strategies are based on sound economic and investment principles, there is no guarantee client objectives will be met. Investment outcomes are always uncertain.
     Backtested performance is hypothetical and does not reflect trading in actual accounts. As such, backtests are provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had particular investments strategies been utilized over the relevant time frame. Backtested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Backtested returns do not represent the performance results of actual trading and are calculated through the retroactive application of the advisor's portfolio configuration, designed with the benefit of hindsight. Since backtested performance results do not represent actual trading, they may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on the decision-making of the adviser, if the adviser were managing the client assets.
     No representation is being made that the adviser’s strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses like those shown. In fact, there are frequently significant material differences between backtested performance results and performance results subsequently achieved by following a strategy. In addition, backtested performance does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or adhere to a trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of backtested performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
     The results portrayed reflect the reinvestment of dividends, interest and other income, as appropriate. In actual portfolios rebalancing occurs at no set time, and such actions are dependent on both market conditions and individual client liquidity inflows and outflows, along with the cost impact of such transactions on the overall portfolio.
     As with any investment strategy, there is potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss. Stillpoint Capital does not guarantee any minimum level of investment performance or the success of any client account or investment strategy. All investments involve risk and investment recommendations will not always be profitable. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtested results do not guarantee future results.
     Results are compared to the performance of the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) and other benchmarks for informational purposes only. The adviser’s investment program does not mirror the S&P 500 Index and the volatility of the adviser’s investment program may be materially different. The securities or other instruments included in the S&P 500 Index are not necessarily included in the adviser’s portfolio and criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500 Index are different than those for investment by the adviser. The performance of the S&P 500 Index ETF was obtained from published sources believed to be reliable, but which are not warranted as to accuracy or completeness. All references to the S&P 500 Index ETF SPY are to the total return form of the ETF, meaning the impact of dividends is included. Unless noted otherwise, the returns of indices presented herein do not reflect fees or transaction costs, nor net dividends, if any. A description of each index follows: The S&P 500 Index, a diversified index that includes the stocks of 500 U.S. listed, large capitalization companies in major industries.
     Past performance, including hypothetical past performance, is not indicative of future performance. There can be no assurance that the adviser will achieve client objectives. Any performance information, market analysis or data or other information is not warranted by Stillpoint Capital as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and such information is subject to change without notice. Stillpoint Capital’s investment strategies may change from time to time based on market conditions and enhancements to its investment methods and strategies without further notice.
     This website and the information contained herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a complete description of our investment services, funds, or strategies. The data in this website have been prepared by Stillpoint Capital and have not been reviewed, compiled, or audited by an independent public accountant. The views expressed on this website represent the current, good faith views of the authors at the time of publication. Please be aware that these views are subject to change at any time and without notice of any kind. Stillpoint Capital assumes no duty and does not undertake to update these views or any forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time.
     All material presented herein is believed to be reliable, but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Stillpoint Capital considers to be reliable; however, Stillpoint Capital makes no representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, or any decision or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon the data. Some results are derived using historical estimations from available data.
     Readers are urged to check with tax advisors before making any investment decisions. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only.
     PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. Investments: Not FDIC Insured - No Bank Guarantee - May Lose Value. Investing in securities involves risks, and there is always the potential of losing money when you invest in securities.
     Before investing, consider your investment objectives and Stillpoint Capital’s fees and other expenses. Stillpoint Capital’s services are designed to assist clients in achieving discrete financial goals. They are not intended to provide comprehensive tax advice or financial planning with respect to every aspect of a client's financial situation and do not incorporate specific investments that clients hold elsewhere. For more details, see our Form ADV Part 2 and other disclosures. Not an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities in jurisdictions where Stillpoint Capital is not registered.